Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales predicts GOP will lose control of the House

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U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, a moderate San Antonio Republican who has routinely spoken out against his own party, predicted Thursday that Republicans will lose control of the House in November, suggesting the GOP majority has failed to address people’s everyday concerns.

“What is frustrating me is, I firmly believe that House Republicans are going to lose the majority. And we're going to lose it because of ourselves,” Gonzales said in an interview with Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman at The Texas Tribune Festival. “We’re getting outraised. We’re getting outspent.” He added that the messaging from Democrats “is at a different level than where we’re at.”

Most people, Gonzales said, “just want their lives to be better. They want to feel safe in their communities. They want their kids to feel safe in school. They want more money in their pockets. These are real issues. … Yet the House Republicans continue to get in their own way, and I worry if we stay in this spot, we’re gonna be in the minority.”

Gonzales said that when Congress reconvenes next week, his party will likely “debate really, kind of failed policies before they even get going.” He did not point to specific issues, but broadly suggested the GOP majority has been overly focused on politics.

Asked about Gonzales’ comment, Delanie Bomar, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement, “We disagree.” On the Democratic side, Justin Chermol, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Gonzales’ comments reaffirm that the GOP is too extreme and “out of touch” to “salvage their faltering majority.”

Republicans currently hold 220 seats in the U.S. House, a narrow majority of the 435-seat chamber. Democrats control 211 seats, while four spots are vacant.

Some national election forecasters have recently shifted their outlook for competitive House seats in favor of Democrats after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden atop the ticket. Though Democrats feared Biden would drag down congressional candidates across the country, Harris has polled far better against Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, assuaging some of those concerns.

Few of Texas’ 38 congressional districts are seen as competitive, with just three seats — all along the border — thought to be truly in play. Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen are looking to defend their seats, while Rep. Monica De La Cruz of Edinburg is the only member of Texas’ House GOP delegation considered vulnerable.

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Gonzales’ seat — a sprawling district that runs from San Antonio to El Paso and covers more of the U.S.-Mexico border than any other seat in the country — is not on the national Democrats’ target list. Gonzales faced his toughest challenge in a closely contested primary this year against YouTuber Brandon Herrera, who sought to turn the race into a referendum over Gonzales’ voting record on guns — and his sometimes antagonistic attitude toward the GOP’s rightmost flank. Gonzales won by 354 votes, or about 1 percentage point.

As The Texas Tribune's signature event of the year, The Texas Tribune Festival brings Texans closer to politics, policy and the day’s news from Texas and beyond. Browse on-demand recordings and catch up on the biggest headlines from Festival events at the Tribune’s Festival news page.