Republicans reassert their dominance in Texas

Sign up for The Brief, The Texas Tribune’s daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

---

Republicans reasserted their decades-long iron grip on Texas by securing comfortable victories all over the ballot Tuesday, dashing Democrats’ hopes of an upset and propelling the state further to the right.

No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, and Democrats again failed to break through in Tuesday’s elections. At the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump won Texas for the third time, handily defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a double digit margin that well exceeded his performances against President Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz shrugged off a well-funded and energetic campaign by U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a Dallas Democrat, securing what appeared likely to be a double-digit percentage point margin.

Lower down the ballot, Republicans gained seats in the state Legislature and in the judicial system, ensuring an even more conservative government in 2025.

Democrats started the night with the expectation that, even if they lost at the top of the ticket, they’d show they were making progress in turning Texas into the nation’s largest swing state. Instead, the GOP seemed to erase any sign of progress its opponents had been making in recent elections.

“Texans sent a clear message,” Republican Gov. Greg Abbott said in a statement Tuesday evening. “They want safer streets, a secure border, a strong economy, and the opportunity to choose the best school for their children. And that’s exactly what these Republican candidates will deliver for their constituents, especially our new Republican allies who made history tonight by securing overwhelming victories in South Texas.”

Cruz’s trouncing of Allred encapsulated the night. It came six years after the polarizing candidate narrowly avoided defeat at the hands Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke in one of the closest U.S. Senate races in Texas history.

Allred, a former NFL player, focused his campaign on Texas’ abortion ban and his commitment to restoring access to the procedure after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. During the final days of his campaign, he spoke about Texas women Josseli Barnica and Nevaeh Crain, who died because they could not terminate their nonviable pregnancies.

Cruz, meanwhile, avoided opining on abortion, instead focusing on tying Allred to Harris and painting his challenger as an extremist on social issues such as transgender rights. His campaign flooded the airwaves with commercials claiming that Allred wanted to let boys play girls’ sports. He also accused Allred of backing Biden’s “open border” policies and said Allred voted against the interests of the oil and gas industry.

National Democrats injected millions of dollars into the Allred campaign, but that money was ineffective in turning out voters.

There were signs that abortion access was a sympathetic issue even in conservative areas: Voters in Amarillo overwhelmingly rejected a proposal that would have made it illegal to use local roads to obtain an out-of-state abortion. But it didn’t appear to change people’s minds at the top of the ticket.

The Republican victories reverse a recent trend of Democrats shrinking the statewide Republican margin of victory. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won the state over Barack Obama by 16 percentage points. In 2016, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by 9 percentage points. In 2020, Trump beat Biden by 5.6 percentage points, the closest victory since 1996.

“The Democrats' biennial fever dream of ‘turning Texas blue’ and baseless hopes for a ‘blue wave’ in the Lone Star State have once again crashed against the wall of reality,” conservative advocate Michael Quinn Sullivan wrote on social media. “Millions of out-of-state dollars blown on losers like Colin Allred have helped Republicans nationwide.”

Much of Democrats’ hope that Texas was becoming more competitive was based on demographics. Texas was younger and becoming more diverse, which favored the Democratic Party, partisans argued. But exit polls by Edison Research found that 55% of Hispanic voters favored Trump. And 58% of Asian voters backed the Republican.

Trump outperformed Harris among Texas men by 24 percentage points and performed equally among women, according to the exit polls.

Republicans made considerable gains in South Texas, a region Republicans have zeroed in on as they target Latino voters. Trump won Starr County in the Rio Grande Valley by more than 15 percentage points. It was the first time a Republican won the county in a presidential race in more than 100 years, according to the Starr County election's office.

Republicans also appeared poised to flip two South Texas state House seats, Republican Denise Villabolos was leading Democrat Solomon P. Ortiz Jr. in District 34, which covers part of Nueces County and has historically been held by a Democrat.

Republicans also held a wide lead in House District 80, which includes Uvalde and extends south to the border. Republican Don Mclaughlin declared defeat over Democrat Cecilia Castellano.

“McLaughlin’s successful campaign signals a new wave of support for Republican values in traditionally Democrat territories,” McLaughlin’s campaign wrote in a statement.

Those gains in the state Legislature bring Abbott one step closer to successfully passing a top conservative priority for 2025: a program that would allow parents to use public dollars to pay for private school tuition or homeschooling expenses. The effort has historically been blocked by a coalition of Democrats and rural Republicans in the House. Victories by Abbott-backed challengers in the March primaries and May runoffs gave Abbott a tentative majority on the issue. Tuesday’s projected victories confirmed the lead, Abbott declared.

“There are more than enough votes to pass school choice in Texas,” Abbott said on social media.

Republican Christi Craddick held on to her seat on Railroad Commission, which regulates the state’s oil and gas industry. Republicans are expected to retain total control of the all-GOP Texas Supreme Court and the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals. Democrats had hoped that backlash over abortion rulings would swing some votes on the high court in their favor.

They also made significant inroads on the lower courts, as they were on track to flip more than a dozen seats on state appeals courts. In the 5th Court of Appeals, based in Dallas, and the 14th Court of Appeals, based in Harris County, Republicans seem likely to displace at least four Democratic incumbents on each court.

"Tonight, Texas has once again proven itself as a bastion of unwavering conservative values and a firewall against the radical left,” Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement. “Across this great state, when Republicans unite, we are an unstoppable force — delivering decisive victories that send a clear message: Texas will never turn blue.”

Texas’ Republican victories mirrored nationwide trends. In most states, Trump’s margin of victory increased since 2020, and Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate, ending two years of Democratic control. Trump won several swing states, and as the night progressed, Harris’ path to victory disappeared.

Texas elected leaders congratulated Trump, celebrated a red wave and began to look ahead to governing during a second Trump administration. U.S. Sen John Cornyn urged fellow Republicans to prepare to confirm Trump's nominees, pass a budget and extend tax cuts.

“I’m confident President Trump will hit the ground running to restore the Office of the President to what it should be – one that keeps the American people safe and prosperous," Cornyn said. "It is critically important that the Senate is prepared to enact his pro-growth agenda from day one."

Eleanor Klibanoff contributed to this report.