Texas is running out of water. Here’s why and what state leaders plan to do about it.

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This article is part of Running Out, an occasional series about Texas’ water crisis. Read more stories about the threats facing Texas’ water supply here.

Texas officials fear the state is gravely close to running out of water.

Towns and cities could be on a path toward a severe shortage of water by 2030, data compiled in the state's 2022 water plan by the Texas Water Development Board indicates. This would happen if there is recurring, record-breaking drought conditions across the state, and if water entities and state leaders fail to put in place key strategies to secure water supplies.

At risk is the water Texans use every day for cooking, cleaning — and drinking.

State lawmakers are debating several solutions, including finding ways to bring new water supply to Texas, and dedicating more money to fix dilapidated infrastructure.

For most other Texans, however, the extent of their knowledge of where water comes from is the kitchen faucet and backyard hose. But behind every drop is a complicated system of sources, laws and management challenges.

So, where does Texas get its water? Who owns it? And why are we running out? Let’s break it down.

Where does Texas get its water?

Texas’ water supply comes from two main sources:

• Groundwater makes up 54%. It is water that is stored underground in aquifers.
• Surface water makes up 43%. It is water from lakes, rivers and reservoirs.

Texas has nine major aquifers and 22 minor ones. They are large formations underground made of sand, gravel, limestone and other porous rocks. The formations act as giant tubs that hold and filter the water.

The largest is the Ogallala Aquifer underneath the Panhandle and West Texas. It is also the biggest aquifer in the U.S., and Texas shares it with seven other states. It’s a lifeline for farms and ranches in the Texas High Plains. However, overuse is rapidly depleting it.

Another major source is the Edwards Aquifer, which provides drinking water to San Antonio and the surrounding Hill Country.

The state also gets water from 15 major river basins and eight coastal basins, lakes, and more than 180 reservoirs. Reservoirs are man-made lakes created by damming rivers to store water for drinking, agriculture and industry. Like aquifers, they are not endless supplies — water levels can depend on rainfall. And climate change, which alters precipitation patterns, leads to more droughts and fluctuating water levels. Major surface water sources include the Rio Grande, Colorado River, and reservoirs like Lake Travis in Austin and Toledo Bend in East Texas.

Does water supply vary region by region?

Yes, and where you get your water from depends on where you live. Groundwater is not equally available across the state. As water expert Carlos Rubinstein puts it: "People don’t all live next to rivers, and the aquifer isn’t a bathtub with the same amount of water everywhere. Rocks and sand get in the way."

For example, people living in Lubbock get their water from several sources — two water well fields, Lake Meredith and Lake Alan Henry. Texans living in Fort Worth get their water from mostly surface water sources — lakes, reservoirs and the Trinity River.

Is my city going to run out of water? How can I check?

Since water supply varies by region, the Texas Tribune created an address-search tool. This tool shows where your local water supply comes from and what supply and demand projections look like for the future.

The tool also explains how you can get more involved in water planning. This can be by attending meetings with regional groups who plan for water needs and use, providing public comments to the water development board as they draft new water plans, or by reaching out to lawmakers.

Who owns Texas’ water — and who governs it?

Water in Texas is a legally complex, highly managed resource. If you own land above an aquifer in Texas, you own the groundwater beneath it — just like owning oil or gas. You don’t have to pump it to claim it; it’s yours by default. However, that doesn’t mean you should use as much as you want. There are consequences.

“Groundwater is your long-term bank account,” says John Dupnik, a deputy executive administrator at the Texas Water Development Board. “The more you withdraw, the faster it declines because it doesn’t replenish quickly.”

To manage this, some areas have groundwater conservation districts that regulate how much water can be pumped. Since groundwater is owned by the landowner, general managers at the districts say they constantly have to strike a balance between protecting water supplies and respecting private property rights.

“We have to let landowners use their water,” says Ty Edwards, general manager of the Middle Pecos Groundwater Conservation District. “But we also have to protect everyone else’s wells. It’s a juggling act.”

Unlike groundwater, surface water belongs to the state. To use it — whether it’s for cities, farms, or businesses — you need a permit from the state’s environmental agency, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

Texas follows a “first in time, first in right” system, meaning older water rights take priority. In a drought, those with senior rights get water first, and newer users might be cut off entirely.

“Think of it like a sold-out concert,” said Rubinstein, a former chair of the Texas Water Development Board. “There are no more tickets. The only way to get more water is to build new storage, but that’s easier said than done.”

Texas’ two separate legal systems for water — one for groundwater and one for surface water — makes management tricky. Dupnik, the water board administrator, said Texas is unique in having the system divided this way. Just nine states, including Texas, have this two-tiered system.

“Most states are usually one or the other,” Dupnik said.

The two water resources are also deeply connected. About 30% of the water in Texas rivers comes from groundwater, according to a water board study. When wells pump too much, rivers and springs can dry up. Sharlene Leurig, a managing member with environmental consulting firm Fluid Advisors, said it’s important for people to understand the relationship between the two.

“Depletions of one drives depletions of the other,” Leurig said.

Why are people concerned about water now?

Texas is growing, and its water supply isn’t keeping up. With droughts, overuse and changing rainfall patterns, water is becoming a scarce resource.

The 2022 Texas Water Plan estimates the state’s population will increase to 51.5 million people by 2070 — an increase of 73%. At the same time, water supply is projected to decrease approximately 18%. The biggest reduction is in groundwater, which is projected to decline 32% by 2070.

This shortfall will be felt most in two major aquifers: The Ogallala Aquifer, as a result of its managed depletion over time, and the Gulf Coast Aquifer, which faces mandatory pumping reductions to prevent land sinking from over-extraction.

Texas is not only losing water to overuse. The state’s aging water pipes are deteriorating, contributing to massive losses from leaks and breaks.

A 2022 report by Texas Living Waters Project, a coalition of environmental groups, estimated that Texas water systems lose at least 572,000 acre-feet per year — about 51 gallons of water per home or business connection every day — enough water to meet the total annual municipal needs of Austin, El Paso, Fort Worth, Laredo and Lubbock combined.

These old pipes also raise concerns about water quality and supply. Breaks trigger boil-water notices, while repairs and replacements strain budgets. This issue is amplified by the lack of funding for maintenance in some areas and the increasing demand for water due to population growth.

Who’s using the most water and how is that changing?

Irrigation holds the top spot for water use in Texas, according to the water board. In fact, agriculture has been the dominant water consumer for decades.

In 2020, over a third of irrigation and livestock water in Texas came from the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. At the same time, more than one-fifth of non-agricultural water came from the Trinity River Basin.

But the way water is used is shifting. By 2060, municipal water demand is projected to overtake irrigation as the biggest user, according to the water board.

Agriculture producers will struggle to meet water prices, said Alan Day, general manager of the Brazos Groundwater Conservation District. As climate change intensifies, he said, water supply may decrease in certain parts of the state and compound challenges for farmers and ranchers.

“With water getting more expensive, we’re seeing a shift from agricultural use to municipal demand,” he said.

Day added that water use isn’t just about who’s taking the most — it’s about where it’s coming from, who’s willing to pay for it, and how we decide to share it in the future.

“What do we want our shared water resources to look like 50 years from now?” Day said. “That’s a moving target. And it’s a political hot potato.”

The state’s water plan says Texas does not have enough water supply to meet the growing need of 6.9 million acre-feet of additional water supplies by 2070 — enough to support 41.4 million Texans for one year. If water strategies are not implemented, the plan says approximately 25% of Texas’ population in 2070 would have less than half the municipal water supplies they will require during a significant drought.

“There's going to be a fight over at what level does harm occur to any of these particular aquifers,” Day said.

How are we planning for water shortages?

The water board is responsible for planning for water shortages. The agency uses the 1950s drought or “drought of record” as a benchmark for statewide water planning.

Temple McKinnon, the director of water supply planning at the state agency, said using the “worst-case scenario” allows water planners to come up with strategies for how to meet future water needs.

That planning has manifested in state legislation and infrastructure investment. In 2023, voters approved a one-time use of $1 billion to fund infrastructure projects. This year, two Republican lawmakers, state Sen. Charles Perry from Lubbock and state Rep. Cody Harris of Palestine, filed constitutional amendments to dedicate $1 billion annually for up to 10 years for water projects. Harris also filed House Bill 16 — a sweeping priority bill that touches on water funds, flood plans, and the development of infrastructure to transport water into a water supply system.

Senate Bill 7, which Perry is expected to author, was named a priority by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and would increase investments in water supply efforts. Texas budget writers have already signaled a willingness to invest at least $2.5 billion in water plans. Perry previously told the Tribune he wants as much as $5 billion.

A key part of this effort is the creation of a statewide water grid — a network of pipelines and supply connections to better distribute water across Texas.

Currently, water systems across the state operate independently. A new water grid would allow Texas to shift water from wetter regions to drier ones when supply shortages hit. However, a framework is still being developed to determine who will oversee and manage this interconnected system.

Lawmakers, including Perry, are also eyeing new water resources to meet future water supply needs.

Some Texas cities, like Corpus Christi along the coast, are turning to desalination to treat seawater and make it drinkable. El Paso has been a leader in this effort, but focusing on cleaning brackish groundwater — slightly salty water found deep underground — enough to drink.

Experts say that the state has untapped water resources — potentially enough to meet the state’s long-term needs.

Disclosure: Texas Living Waters Project has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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