Analysis: The 2025 Texas Senate, from right to left

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The Texas Senate’s roll-call votes during this year’s regular legislative session allow us to once again rank the 31 senators from the conservative to liberal ends of the Senate’s ideological spectrum — in relation to each other.

Republicans

The 20 Republican senators fall into five general groups on the ideological spectrum.

At the most conservative end are two senators, Bryan Hughes of Mineola and Mayes Middleton of Galveston. Hughes is significantly more conservative than all of his 19 Republican colleagues and Middleton is significantly more conservative than all but two of his Republican colleagues.

A second group of four Republican senators ranges from Kevin Sparks of Midland and Brandon Creighton of Conroe to Brent Hagenbuch of Denton and Bob Hall of Edgewood. Their scores render them essentially tied. All four of these senators are significantly more conservative than at least three-fifths of their fellow Republican senators.

Two Republican senators, Lois Kolkhorst of Brenham and Kelly Hancock of North Richland Hills, occupy a position between the above-mentioned quartet and the group of 11 Republican senators closer to the GOP median discussed below. Kolkhorst and Hancock both are significantly more conservative than eight other GOP senators.

The largest group of Republicans (11 total) is centered on the delegation median, and ranges from Charles Schwertner of Georgetown on one end to Angela Paxton of McKinney on the other. The senators in this group are neither significantly more nor less conservative than each other. The principal (albeit still modest) exceptions are Schwertner, who is significantly more conservative than three senators in this group, and Paxton, who is significantly less conservative than three senators in this group. The two median Republican senators, Adam Hinojosa of Corpus Christi and Tan Parker of Flower Mound, belong to this group, with equal numbers of Republican senators more conservative, and less conservative, than this duo.

At the least conservative end of the GOP ideological spectrum is a single senator, Robert Nichols of Jacksonville. Nichols is significantly less conservative than all 19 of his Republican colleagues. Nichols’ is still however significantly more conservative than the most conservative Democratic senator.

Democrats

The 11 Democratic senators fall into four general groups in regard to their location on the ideological spectrum.

At the most liberal end of the Democratic ideological continuum are two senators, Molly Cook of Houston and Sarah Eckhardt of Austin. Both are significantly more liberal than all of the nine other Democrats.

The largest group of Democrats is centered on the Democratic delegation’s median. This group of five senators ranges from Roland Gutierrez of San Antonio to Nathan Johnson of Dallas. With one minor exception, none of these five senators are significantly more or less liberal than another member of this quintet. The one exception is Gutierrez is significantly more liberal than Johnson, and vice versa. The median Democratic senator, Carol Alvarado of Houston, belongs to this group, with half of the Democratic delegation less liberal, and half more liberal, than Alvarado.

Two senators, Judith Zaffirini of Laredo and Royce West of Dallas, occupy a position to the right of the above-mentioned group of five, but to the left of the two most conservative Democratic senators discussed below. Zaffirini and West are significantly more conservative than seven of their fellow Democrats and significantly more liberal than two of their fellow Democrats.

At the least liberal end of the Democratic ideological continuum are two senators, Juan “Chuy” Hinojosa of McAllen and César Blanco of El Paso. They are significantly more conservative than all of their fellow Democrats, with Hinojosa being significantly more conservative than Blanco. Hinojosa is still however significantly more liberal than the least conservative Republican senator.

Methodology

Political scientists have for decades used roll-call votes cast by members of the U.S. Congress to map their places on the Liberal-Conservative scale along which most legislative politics now takes place. This ranking of the Texas Senate, which has been conducted biennially since 2011, does the same by drawing on the 2,070 non-lopsided (where at least two senators are on the losing side) roll-call votes taken during the 2025 regular session.

As with previous rankings conducted in 2023 (post-special session), 2023, 2021 (post-special session), 2019, 2017 (post-special session), 2015, 2013 and 2011, this 2025 regular session analysis uses a Bayesian estimation procedure belonging to political science’s gold standard for roll-call vote analysis.

The senators are ranked from most liberal to most conservative (compared to each other) based on their Liberal-Conservative Scores, with the 95% credible interval (CI) for this point estimate also provided. If two senators’ CIs overlap, their positions on the ideological spectrum might be statistically equivalent, even if their Lib-Con Scores are different.

In no case in 2025 did the CI of a Republican senator overlap with that of a Democratic senator, indicating that every Republican is significantly more conservative than every Democrat, and every Democrat is significantly more liberal than every Republican.

Mark P. Jones is the Political Science Fellow at Rice University’s James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy.

Disclosure: James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and Rice University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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