Number missing from Hill Country floods down to 3

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Editor's note: The most recent information on the number of dead and missing from the floods can be found here.

More than two weeks after catastrophic July Fourth floods along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, authorities reported Saturday that nearly all of the people who had remained on the list of missing persons have been verified as safe.

As recently as Monday, rescuers were still trying to find an estimated 101 people. But by Saturday, the official count of people missing had been lowered to three.

The officials did not give an update to the total number of people who died because of the floods. On Thursday, Gov. Greg Abbott said the statewide death toll was 135.

In a press release, the city of Kerrville wrote that many of the people missing had been located "through extensive follow-up work among state and local agencies."

“This remarkable progress reflects countless hours of coordinated search and rescue operations, careful investigative work, and an unwavering commitment to bringing clarity and hope to families during an unimaginably difficult time,” City Manager Dalton Rice said.

Still, officials said that local, state, national and international search teams are continuing to conduct recovery operations.

Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said during a commissioners court meeting Monday that the search for missing people could take up to six months, but setting a time estimate is also difficult.

“How long is it going to take? I mean, who knows?” Leitha said.

Abbott said Monday most of those still considered missing were people who did not check into hotels or campsites. Abbott said many of those people were added to the list of people who haven’t been located after friends and family reported them missing.

“Those who are missing on this list, most of them, were more difficult to identify because there was no record of them logging in anywhere,” Abbott said.

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top official, said during a county commissioners court meeting earlier Monday that local officials don’t know the exact number of how many visitors who traveled to the Guadalupe for the holiday weekend had been caught in the flood.

“We don’t know how many of them there are,” Kelly said. “Don’t be discouraged when you hear that number, we’re doing the very best we can, but it is an unknown at this point.”

On Saturday, Kelly said he was grateful for the rescuers who have worked tirelessly over the past two weeks.

"To every member of law enforcement, fire and rescue, emergency management, and supporting agencies — thank you,” Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said. “Your dedication, professionalism, and compassion have brought comfort and answers to so many."

Recovery teams have been thoroughly scouring large debris piles for any people who were swept into the Guadalupe after it swelled in the pre-dawn hours July 4 following heavy rain. Those efforts were been hindered further by continued rain and flooding in areas already impacted by the initial floods, pausing searches across the Hill Country.

The devastating flood is still one of the deadliest natural disasters in recent Texas history. The 1900 hurricane in Galveston claimed over 8,000 lives and the 1921 San Antonio floods killed 215 people.

A lower estimate in the number of people missing is not uncommon after mass casualty events. In the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster, officials try to nail down who was near scenes of disaster, identify found remains and communicate across agencies. In the wake of intense wildfires in Hawaii in 2023, the estimated number of missing people at one point peaked at 3,000 people, however ultimately the number of those killed was 102.

Initial post-disaster lags in communication have already affected flood search efforts: Travis County officials whittled down their missing persons count from 10 people to four after they realized some people were on both the lists of those missing and those who had been confirmed dead, according to a county spokesperson.

As time goes on a clearer idea of who is unaccounted for should begin to appear, said Lucy Easthope, an international adviser on disaster recovery efforts.

“Certainly, by the end of the first month, you've got a good idea of what you're looking for,” Easthope said. “And sometimes in flooding, we've seen the Earth only yield its final death toll some months, and maybe even years, later.”

The high number of visitors to the river for the July 4 holiday may also prove another obstacle in nailing down an accurate number, as people along the river in RVs or who didn’t check in to hotels may be unaccounted for. President Donald Trump cast doubt on the true number of those still missing during his visit in Kerrville on Friday.

“They're getting that count, but the count that they don't have is how many are still missing, with a lot of lives, a lot of young angels,” Trump said.