Texas redistricting map: How the GOP could increase its stronghold

If the 2024 election had taken place under the proposed maps, President Donald Trump would have carried three more districts than he would have under the current congressional map. In addition, Republicans would have better odds in two districts currently held by Democrats that Trump already carried in 2024.

Trump won Texas in 2024 with 56% of the vote. But the current Congressional maps drawn in 2021 saw voters preferring him in 71% — or 27 — of the 38 Texas congressional districts. Under the current proposed map, Trump would have carried 79% of districts, meaning the new boundaries are drawn in a way that favors Republicans far beyond their share of statewide voter support last year.

Republicans control both chambers of the Texas Legislature, which draws congressional districts. GOP lawmakers in 2021 gave their party an advantage in Congress when they drew the district boundaries. Giving one political party an advantage over the other, or gerrymandering, is something both parties do in states across the country.

Under this year’s proposed plan, Democratic districts in the Dallas and Houston areas were drawn to increase, or “pack”, the number of Democratic voters in districts the minority party already controls. Packing those districts leaves fewer Democratic voters and more Republican voters in neighboring districts. Consolidating more Democrats into nearby districts could turn seats represented by Democratic U.S. Reps. Julie Johnson in North Texas’ 32nd District and Al Green in the Houston area’s 9th District into Republican districts.

In Hays County, 52.1% of voters chose Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024. Under the new proposal, that county south of Austin is split into two Republican districts, the 21st District and 27th District. Decreasing a party's voting strength is called “cracking.”

The GOP is gambling that the state continues its rightward shift in the 2026 midterms.

Significant Democratic gains in 2018 almost gave Beto O’Rourke the win in the U.S. Senate race. But the pendulum swung back to Republicans when O’Rourke unsuccessfully ran against Gov. Greg Abbott in 2022. Republicans hope that South Texas, whose voters are mostly Hispanic, will continue to skew right in order to flip the seats held by Democrats Rep. Henry Cuellar in the 28th District and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District.

Parties can carve up districts for political gain, but they cannot redraw the districts to dilute the voting strength of voters of color. Because Black and Hispanic voters in major Texas cities favor Democrats, it can be hard to determine whether lines are drawn for partisan gains versus racial dilution.

In Texas, Hispanics make up the largest demographic group and have driven population growth in the state for at least the last 20 years. But Hispanics are the majority in only seven out of 38 proposed districts.

Still, there would be one additional district where Hispanic Texans make up the majority. There would be an additional two districts where white Texans are the majority, and an additional two districts with a majority of Black Texans.

In addition, the new maps would decrease the number of multiracial districts where no one racial group holds a majority from nine to four, creating two new majority Black districts — the 30th District in Dallas represented by Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett and the solidly blue 18th District in Houston currently vacant since the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner.